January 9, 2008

It seems we should not expect a housing recovery in 2008.  Economists are predicting that the housing market in the Washington area will remain the same as in 2007.  The strong job market and low unemployment should help the housing market in Northern Virginia remain stable compared to other parts of the country.  Although the subprime lending crisis has led to stricter guidelines for buyers qualifying for mortgages, rates remain relatively low and still hover around 6% for a 30-year conforming loan.  The maximum for a conforming loan remains at $417,000.  Jumbo loans, which are loans over $417,000, are at a significantly higher rate than conforming loans (more than 1%).  It is also harder to qualify for a jumbo loan and banks have introduced even stricter parameters.  This has definitely contributed to fewer buyers in the area and thus explains the 13% decrease in the number of transactions in 2007 over 2006.  In 2006, prices remained stable with a slight increase of 0.12% for the average sales price. The end of year statistics for 2007 for Northern Virginia are confusing and do not give a realistic picture of what is happening in the market.  Definitely the closer-in areas such as Arlington, Falls Church, and McLean are not suffering as much as the areas further west and this should be considered when looking at the figures.  Although the average sales price shows a very slight gain of +.013% for 2007, in reality many of the neighborhoods in Fairfax, Vienna, Chantilly, Centreville, Springfield, and Burke are showing more than a 10% decrease in average sales prices. 

Mantua’s exceptional location, schools, swim and tennis club, community spirit, and activities still make it one of the best places to live around Washington.  The walking trails, mature trees, large lots, and attractive housing are also reasons people seek out our neighborhood.  Using the link below, you will find a list of all the transactions that went to settlement in Mantua during 2007.  41 houses sold in the neighborhood, 3 are currently under contract and there are 14 active listings. In contrast, 35 homes sold in 2006.  Average prices decreased more than 13% in Mantua this past year. We did not have as many higher priced homes sell in 2007.  This helps to explain the large drop in prices since 2006.  Also, it is clear that buyers will no longer pay high prices for older homes that do not have renovated kitchen & baths and are not well maintained by their owners. Buyers have many houses to choose from and a home has to look good on the outside and the inside to appeal to potential purchasers. 

The average price of homes sold in 2007 in Mantua was $689,877.  The median price was $690,000.  The average current asking price of the homes that are active and on the market now is $715,860. Ridgelea Hills had 2 houses sell last year for $785,000 and $840,000, indicating that the prices are greatly reduced in this neighborhood also.  There is one house currently on the market in Ridgelea for $765,000.  

Homes have been taking longer to sell, especially over the fall and winter months.   It is not unusual to see a home  on the market for 6-12 months.  Homes that are renovated and priced realistically from the beginning clearly sell faster and now that the market has changed and we are truly in a buyer’s market, pricing, curb appeal, and renovations have become more important than ever.  The average “Number of Days on Market” of the homes in Mantua that sold in 2007 was 79.  The homes currently on the market have been on for an average of 174 days.

Our activity this year in Mantua included selling 10 houses that we listed, and assisting 5 purchasers with transactions.  We currently have 2 listings in Mantua.  We completed more transactions than any other agent this year in our neighborhood and we know the current market conditions here very well.  Please call us if you are thinking of buying or selling in the upcoming months. 

 Click this link to see Mantua properties sold in 2007